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Today's Market: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Updated: Dec 12, 2023

While the market being bad seems to be all anyone can talk about, it may be on the way to flattening out.

Girl sitting on couch boxes packed

Between the media and word-of-mouth sources, it's hard to know what's really going on in today's market. Let's break it down.


The Ugly

Rates Remain Over 7% Despite Modest Improvement

"The most important thing to know about mortgage rates so far this week (as of July 11th, 2023) is that they lived through last week. Living through last week means rates reacted to surprisingly strong economic data by jumping well into the 7% range for conventional 30yr fixed loans.


We've been here before--just a few months ago, but not for very long. Also, we haven't been much higher than this in more than 20 years. That said, many experts thought we might not be back here quite so soon--if at all during the same cycle.


The x factor is the steady supply of data that shows stubborn inflation and persistent economic growth. Rates will remain high until these things change. We'll get a major update on the state of inflation this Wednesday morning with the release of June's Consumer Price Index (CPI), but even then, it will take several months of cohesive messaging in the data to definitively turn the tide for rates." (Data and wording from http://mndne.ws/MPZYMP)


The Bad

Despite the rates being higher in the past few months than they have been in the last 20 years, 30 year mortgage interest rates, for the most part, continue to drop slightly. Though this still isn't the best news, it's better than it has been.


As the rates continue to be near the 7% range, it's clear that getting a mortgage isn't something a lot of people want to do right now. The hope for a lot of potential homebuyers then becomes, "Can I get this loan and refinance with a lower rate later or do I wait for the rate to drop before buying?" There are many pros and cons for both of these options. You'll have to do the legwork on that one on your own because each and every situation is so unique.


We'll leave you with this though, there is no guarantee that these rates will get lower or that they won't skyrocket again. That's the bad news here. The market is volatile and slightly unpredictable. We can guess but we can never really know until it happens. Contact a loan officer today to see what your best options are and if waiting or buying is best for you at this moment.


The Good

It might seem like it's all bad or ugly news, but let's end with some good news!


The good news is that many sources forecast rates will drop by the end of 2023, even as low as the 5% range!


"Here’s how other experts predict market conditions will affect the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage in the coming months:

Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu. [W]e expect a gradual decline that could bring rates near 6% by year-end.

Fannie Mae. 30-year fixed rate mortgage will average 6.6% for Q3 2023, according to the June Housing Forecast.

Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater. “[W]ith the rate of inflation decelerating, rates should gently decline over the course of 2023.”

National Association of Realtors (NAR). “[F]orecasts that … mortgage rates will drop—with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate progressively falling to 6% this year and to 5.6% in 2024.”

First American deputy chief economist Odeta Kushi. “I think it’s reasonable to assume that rates will come down a bit in the second half of the year and stabilize if the Fed takes its foot off the monetary-tightening pedal.”

Bank of America head of retail lending Matt Vernon. “Bank of America Global Research expects mortgage rates to fall to 5.25% by year-end.”

Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) vice president and deputy chief economist Joel Kan. Kan expects mortgage rates to average 5.6% by the end of 2023.

Rinaldi Group president Stephen Rinaldi. “[R]ates will begin [to] slide into the summer, beginning a slow but relatively steady lowering of interest rates.”

(expert predictions from forbes.com)

 

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